In the past few years, driven by the real estate and other industries, the output of the domestic paint industry has shown great strides. Since 2009, my country has been among the world's largest paint producers and consumers. However, in 2015, the domestic coatings industry ushered in a very difficult journey on the road of development. Next, we summarize the development status of the domestic coatings industry in 2015 and the development trend in 2016 through the analysis of the macro economy and related industries.
The economic environment has entered a "new normal"
In 2015, China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, the economic structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded, and economic growth has shifted from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, China's economy has contributed 27.8% to world economic growth this year, and it is still an important engine of the world economy. In addition to quantitative expansion, China's economy, which has entered the "new normal", is also constantly upgrading in quality, bringing new dividends to the development of China and the world economy.
China's efforts to adjust the structure and stabilize growth are beneficial to the domestic economic transformation, and also drive economic and trade partners to jump to the high-end of the value chain; China's use of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone's exploration in areas such as pre-entry national treatment and negative lists has not only explored the domestic deepening of reforms It also expands opening to the outside world in a wider area; the completion of the China-Australia and China-Korea free trade negotiations marks that China's free trade zone strategy has reached a new level.
The real estate industry is "unusual"
While the domestic macroeconomic growth rate has slowed down, the domestic real estate industry has entered a continuous decline channel. According to the China Paint Purchasing Network, from January to November 2015, the national real estate development investment was 8,660.1 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 11.9% year-on-year, and an increase of The speed ratio dropped by 0.5 percentage points from January to October. Among them, residential investment was 5,867.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points. Residential investment accounted for 67.8% of real estate development investment.
Looking back at the overall trend of investment in the domestic real estate industry in 2015, we found that investment in my country's real estate industry continued to decline in 2015. In November, the growth of investment in the domestic real estate industry fell by 7.4% compared with January 2014, and the growth rate of the development and purchase area of ​​real estate banks It fell 21% from January; this shows that the development of the domestic real estate industry is sluggish. The downturn in the domestic real estate industry has led to a decline in the growth rate of a large number of industries, of course, including the development of the domestic paint industry.
Coating industry "changes in the wind and clouds"
2015 was a challenging year for the domestic paint industry. Declines, layoffs, mergers and acquisitions, transformation, and price wars made paint companies suffer. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First, the downturn in the real estate industry, under the vigorous promotion of the domestic real estate industry in recent years, has promoted my country's architectural coatings to become the main force in the entire industry. In 2014, with the downturn in the real estate industry, the market demand for domestic architectural coatings was reduced. It also led to a slight decline in the output growth rate of the domestic paint industry compared with 2013. Many paint companies also reflected that the domestic paint industry was not doing well in 2014;
Next is the issue of environmental protection. 2015 can be said to be a very strict year for domestic environmental protection policies. With the continuous introduction of more stringent environmental protection standards for coatings and related systems by the national environmental protection department and related organizations in the coatings industry came a lot of pressure;
Then there is the transformation of enterprises. The paint industry is a traditional industry. In the previous development process, paint companies were using traditional concepts and traditional business methods to market. However, with the 2015 Internet thinking, micro-marketing and other new The emergence of viewpoints and new thinking is undoubtedly a blow to the tired paint industry. The paint companies that used to be very good in the traditional industry have become very blind under the new environment and new thinking. I don't know what to do. develop. A number of factors have led to a slowdown in the development of the coatings industry.
In fact, the current situation of the market slowing down and shifting gears will continue to ferment. In this way, the long winter of 2015 is extraordinarily cold, and it will last for a long time. For all paint companies, if they want to share the market cake in 2015, they must be alive. Because only living companies are eligible to welcome spring!
Earlier we said that paint companies can only share the cake of the domestic paint market in 2016 if they are alive. So how much is the cake in the domestic paint market in 2016? Is it enough for thousands of paint companies in China to share? This is the current domestic paint market. issues of great concern to enterprises.
According to China Coatings Purchasing Network, at the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, an analysis and study of my country's economic development in 2016 was conducted. , pay close attention to reforms, highlight innovation-driven, strengthen risk prevention and control, strengthen people's livelihood security, and promote sustainable and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability. In addition, it is necessary to maintain stable growth and structural balance, adhere to the general idea that macro policies must be stable, micro policies must be active, and social policies must be underpinned, maintain the continuity and stability of macro policies, and continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. .
From the above introduction, we can see that in 2016, my country's macroeconomic development will still be dominated by medium-speed and stable development, and the enthusiasm for investment in the real estate industry will relatively decline, which is bad news for the development of the domestic paint industry. . However, at the same time, the meeting also emphasized that it is necessary to promote the simultaneous development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization, gradually strengthen the supporting role of strategic emerging industries and service industries, focus on promoting traditional industries to the high-end, and promote mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation. , and actively discover and cultivate new growth points. This has brought a glimmer of hope for the development of the domestic paint industry. In the previous development process, paint companies have concentrated their development centers in first- and second-tier cities, so they have grown rapidly in the past ten years. With the vigorous construction of urbanization, it will bring great business opportunities to the development of domestic paint companies, which is good news for domestic paint companies.
Although urbanization construction will bring a certain development space to the development of domestic paint enterprises, China Paint Purchasing Network believes that the development difficulty of domestic paint enterprises in 2016 will not be lower than that in 2015, and will even face more development difficulties. Purchasing Network believes that it mainly has the following points:
1. Environmental Policy
Environmental protection, in the current paint industry, not only refers to whether the production process of paint enterprises is environmentally friendly, whether there is any pollution to the surrounding environment, but also whether the paint products are environmentally friendly. Let's take a look at environmental protection in terms of coating companies. Although the national environmental protection department and industry-related organizations issued a large number of environmental protection policies related to the paint industry in 2015, the policies have not been fully implemented, and the implementation of many local organizations and governments is not very strong. According to the China Coatings Purchasing Network, there are more than 20 environmental protection policies and systems in the coatings industry that were introduced and formulated in 2015. Many policies and systems have not been fully implemented since they were introduced, and the pressure on environmental protection brought by coating companies in many places is not very high. Obviously, but we believe that these environmental protection policies and systems will be implemented in 2016, and paint companies will face greater pressure at that time.
In addition, environmental protection of paint products is another assessment standard for domestic paint companies by consumers in recent years. In the development process in the past few years, the domestic paint industry used solvent-based paint products, which not only produced a large amount of volatile substances during the production process, but also produced a large amount of volatile substances after use. , causing great harm to the human body. Nowadays, consumers' awareness of environmental protection is getting stronger and stronger, and they are paying more and more attention to coating products, which has invisibly added a lot of development pressure to coating companies.
2. Market demand
The development of the coating industry and the development of coating companies depend on the market demand. The application fields of coating products are relatively broad, but they are mainly used in the construction industry. In 2015, the real estate industry continued to be sluggish. A person in the real estate industry said that a large number of residential houses and commercial houses in the hands of many developers in the south were vacant, so it did not bring more development space for the development of architectural coatings enterprises. Judging from the current development situation, the investment in the domestic real estate industry will further slow down in 2016, and the entire industry will focus on digesting production capacity. Therefore, China Coatings Purchasing Network believes that in 2016, the domestic real estate industry will not drive too much architectural coatings.
In addition, in terms of industrial coatings, according to the current situation of China Coatings Purchasing Network, the automobile, ship and other manufacturing industries are in a situation of overcapacity. In the next one or two years, the industry will reshuffle and digest production capacity. There will be no rapid growth pattern. Therefore, the driving force for the development of the domestic industrial coatings industry is also extremely limited.
3. Enterprise Transformation
Today, with the rapid development of the new media and self-media era, the traditional business model and marketing thinking have become very OUT. Paint companies must transform and upgrade, try to enter a new marketing environment, and develop rapidly with the help of the Internet, WeChat and other media. This is a change of thinking for paint companies. Compared with other traditional industries, paint companies have great advantages in corporate transformation.
In addition to the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, coating products also need to be upgraded, which is mainly reflected in the transformation from solvent-based coating products to water-based coating products. In the current coating market, solvent-based coating products are still the main products, which are lacking in performance and environmental protection, while water-based coating products can make up for the shortcomings of solvent-based coating products. Organizations are also actively encouraging the development of water-based paint products.
To sum up, China Coatings Purchasing Network believes that the development prospects of the domestic coating industry in 2016 are not very optimistic, and the growth space of market demand will become smaller and smaller. Transformation and upgrading have become the main problems faced by coating companies in 2016. Paint companies should still be prepared for transformation and upgrading, otherwise they will be overwhelmed by historical trends. In this industry storm, a large number of paint companies with low production capacity and high consumption will be eliminated, purifying the development of the entire paint industry.